An aggressive march toward final investment decision (FID) for several LNG projects worldwide could result in an additional 100 million tons per annum (mtpa) that would be approved in the next six to 18 months, leading to an oversupply in Asian markets to 2025.
“With the LNG market facing a wall of new supply just as China’s gas demand growth has faltered, it is surprising how few new projects chasing an FID have been postponed,” Noel Tomnay, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president, global gas & LNG research, said following the release of a new global gas analysis.
Global LNG supply is around 250 mtpa, with projects under construction ultimately contributing another 140 mtpa of capacity. Wood Mac has projected difficulties in absorption of this extra supply for some time, but said that the recent demand downturn aggravates its bearish prognosis.
China’s 4% year-over-year decline in LNG imports, as well as cutbacks in other parts of Asia, underpins the gloomy revision to Wood Mac’s outlook. Longer term incremental growth has been negatively affected, Tomnay said, and opportunities to push more LNG onto the Asian market don’t really appear until after 2022.
BG Group’s postponement of its Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana is unique in its reaction to the anticipated oversupply, Tomnay said. But BG is the exception.
“Major project operators including Shell, PETRONAS, ENI, Anadarko, BP, ExxonMobil and Woodside maintain that their projects will take FID before the end of 2016,” he said.
Reasons for not delaying projects include the possibility of invalidating contracts, jeopardizing stakeholder support, or losing momentum on a project that could lead to its cancellation.
Still, the inevitability of an impending surplus has its consequences.
“The global LNG market does not need all this LNG at the pace proposed,” Tomnay said. “As companies confront this reality, a raft of project postponements will follow.”
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com.
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